17/08/2001

Economists fear house price bubble set to deflate

Leading economy analysts are concerned that the buoyant house prices driven by a speculative property investments market may be set to end.

The warning will strike a poignant chord with house buyers in the early 1990s who found themselves faced with massive negative equity problems when house prices plunged to below the value of the mortgage.

The report from Cambridge Econometrics claims that the sustained rise in house prices in the south east of England make a downturn in house prices increasingly likely. The report further warned that a “crisis” in the hosing market could be precipitated by a trigger factor such as higher inflation, an increase in interest rates, or a global economic slowdown.

In terms of the coming year the reports authors considered that stagnation in the London housing market could be expected as there was reduced activity in the City.

The analysis by Cambridge Econometrics revealed that the ratio of earnings to house prices in the south east region is approaching its 1988 peak. This peak preceded the last housing market collapse. (SP)

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