Northern Ireland is projected to exceed one million workforce jobs by 2032, according to a report released by Ulster University's Economic Policy Centre (UUEPC).

The latest UUEPC Economic Outlook – July 2026 finds Northern Ireland outpaced all other UK regions for annual workforce jobs growth between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, even as employment fell across much of the rest of the UK.

Researchers note that public sector expansion and ongoing gains in parts of the private sector have supported activity, while warning of emerging pressures around workforce planning, productivity and demographic shifts.

Private services have been a key driver of growth. Unlike much of the UK since the pandemic, Northern Ireland has continued to add jobs in wholesale and retail.

Construction entered 2026 with solid momentum and is expected to benefit from major infrastructure spending and the rollout of City and Growth Deal projects.

Employment is forecast to keep rising, though the pace is likely to ease over time as the labour market gradually moves closer to broader UK trends.

Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Assistant Economist Todd Gowdy commented: "Northern Ireland's labour market continues to demonstrate remarkable resilience. Strong employment growth has been a key driver of economic performance over the past year, and our forecasts indicate that this momentum will continue, with workforce jobs expected to exceed one million by 2032.

"However, sustaining that growth will require strategic policymaking. Demographic change, skills shortages and productivity challenges will all need to be addressed if we are to maximise economic opportunities and improve living standards over the long term." The report also examines how productivity and employment can grow together. Using new UUEPC research covering UK regions and industries from 1998 to 2023, it concludes that while productivity gains can reduce labour demand in some sectors, they also create positive spillovers that support job creation elsewhere.

Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Principal Economist Myles Patton added: "The research suggests that productivity growth is more commonly associated with job reallocation across the economy than with widespread job destruction, while highlighting the growing importance of skills development and workforce adaptability as technologies such as artificial intelligence continue to evolve."

Within its regular forecast, the Centre shares new insights from forthcoming research estimating that turnover among Child and Family Care Social Workers in Northern Ireland cost about £7.13 million in 2024/25, reflecting recruitment, training, learning and development, and productivity losses linked to vacancies.

A 20% reduction in turnover could save an estimated £1.43 million — enough to fund roughly 42 additional Band 5/6 Social Workers, the report suggests.

While staff burnout, retention challenges and pay disputes in the social sector are well known, the research argues that addressing them — and keeping experienced staff — should be treated as a significant fiscal priority as well as a workforce issue.

Ulster University Economic Policy Centre Senior Economist Gillian Martin said: "Workforce retention has direct implications for public finances, service delivery and organisational performance. High staff turnover places a measurable financial burden on public services, while also affecting service continuity and outcomes for vulnerable children and families. The research demonstrates that investing in employee wellbeing, professional development and workforce planning can deliver significant benefits, both financially and socially."

The Outlook also underscores the need to prepare for demographic change. An ageing population is expected to increase demand for health and social care, while fewer children and young people will reshape pressures in education. Long-term workforce planning across both systems will be essential to match future need.