Two independent studies released examine how recent shifts in US trade policy are likely to affect Northern Ireland, with both papers indicating headwinds for growth, trade and household spending.

One report, undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), models the macroeconomic consequences of higher US tariffs. A second ESRI paper analyses how changed tariff regimes could reshape Northern Ireland's trading patterns by sector and partner.

Using scenarios covering 2025 to 2030, the macroeconomic work assessed potential effects on GDP, trade flows, employment, consumption, wages and inflation. The researchers conclude that steeper tariffs would curb trade volumes, lift inflation in the short term, and weigh on output and consumer spending over time.

While Northern Ireland's dual-market access under the Windsor Framework may offer some insulation and new opportunities as global supply chains adjust, the studies suggest these advantages are unlikely to offset the broader costs associated with higher trade barriers.

Economy Minister Dr Caoimhe Archibald said: "The introduction of new US tariffs has been an unwelcome development for the global economy, creating uncertainty for businesses, investors and consumers across international markets. "This research confirms that increased trade barriers are likely to have negative consequences for economic growth, trade and employment, both here and internationally. As a small, open economy with strong trading links to both Britain and the European Union, the north is particularly sensitive to changes in the global trading environment.

"The report also highlights the strategic value of our dual-market access arrangements, which provide important advantages and may create opportunities as global trade patterns evolve."

The trade-focused analysis finds that US tariffs introduced since 2025 are expected to have a significant, lasting impact on commerce between Northern Ireland and the United States. The steepest estimated drops in exports are in chemicals and in transport equipment manufacturing other than motor vehicles, while imports are projected to fall most sharply for electrical machinery.

As firms reorient, the research indicates modest increases in trade with Britain, Ireland and other EU member states.

Commissioned by the Department for the Economy, the studies employed NIESR's AMNIE macroeconomic model to test five potential tariff paths against a no-tariff baseline. Across all scenarios, GDP remains below baseline, imports and exports decline, household consumption weakens, employment dips modestly, and inflation rises initially before easing as demand softens.

The Minister added: "My priority remains supporting businesses, strengthening exports, attracting investment and ensuring our economy is well placed to navigate external economic challenges. These findings provide valuable evidence on the local implications of changing global trade conditions and will help inform our response to them."