Asda's report links volatility in oil markets to tensions between the US and Iran and says the sharp monthly decline in liquid fuel costs eased pressure on spending power in June. Northern Ireland's Income Tracker rose by 6.4% year-on-year in Q2, marking a 3% acceleration on Q1.

Gross income growth in Q2 2026 was second only to the East of England, with earnings in Northern Ireland up 3.8% year-on-year. While the region has historically lagged due to a higher share of lower-productivity sectors, recent figures suggest the gap is starting to close.

However, the report cautions that softer oil prices and moderating inflation may amount to only a temporary 'lull' amid continuing unrest in the Middle East.

Discretionary income in Northern Ireland is £137 a week, which is £27.42 lower than the North East, the next worst-off region. Despite remaining the weakest across UK nations and regions, Northern Ireland's Income Tracker improved by £8.22 compared with a year earlier, though it fell by £3.38 on the quarter.

Looking ahead, renewed inflationary pressures are expected to weigh on the Tracker. Although the labour market shows signs of stabilising, it continues to cool, curbing workers' bargaining power and pay growth.

At a UK level, the Income Tracker highlights persistent regional divides: households in northern England have less money left after essentials than those in the south, even as average UK budgets improved year-on-year.

Key findings include:

- The average Income Tracker across the North East, North West, and Yorkshire and the Humber was £202 per week in the three months to June 2026.

- This was £60 less than the average for the East of England, South East, London and South West, at £262 a week left after bills and essentials.

- London households had the most discretionary income, averaging £337 a week, while the East of England was second at £285 and recorded the strongest income growth. - Higher earnings, better job opportunities and steady income gains supported these regions, although rising housing costs are increasingly squeezing budgets in the capital.

- In contrast, households in the North East had just £165 a week left after essentials — less than half the London level — while Yorkshire and the Humber averaged £212.

- Both regions continue to face labour market headwinds, with unemployment at 5.7% and 5.8% respectively, reflecting longer-run shifts away from traditional industries.

The findings come as the Government steps up its focus on devolution and regional growth, with an emphasis on boosting investment and opportunity across the UK.

Even so, fresh inflationary pressures could continue to erode budgets, despite headline inflation easing to 2.6% in June, supported by lower energy prices.

Commenting on the latest Tracker and its relevance to Northern Ireland, Sam Miley, Head of Forecasting and Thought Leadership at Cebr, said: "Amidst elevated macroeconomic uncertainty and an ongoing energy crisis, the UK-wide Income Tracker demonstrated its resilience in Q2 2026, with growth picking up to its highest rate in a year. This positive momentum was also visible in Northern Ireland which saw its fastest Income Tracker growth since Q1 2025, as oil price pressures eased towards the end of the quarter.

"However, significant headwinds remain for the Income Tracker, particularly in Northern Ireland. A resumption of hostilities in the Middle East has renewed pressures on oil prices, which will have especially adverse knock-on effects for prices of heating oil, which sees disproportionate use in Northern Ireland, going into the Autumn. These headwinds would be expected to stall the Income Tracker's recent momentum, with contractions in purchasing power still possible over the second half of 2026."

Asda says it remains focused on helping families across the UK and is regularly recognised for offering the lowest prices among traditional supermarkets in independent surveys by Which? and The Grocer.