Beating the winter blues is going to be extra hard work for retailers this year, with a difficult period ahead forecast by business experts.

This is according to leading retail analyst from the University of Ulster, Donald McFetridge, who has predicted tough times for almost all sectors of the marketplace.

“There will be a period of initial slowdown in consumer spending for at least the first three to four months of 2005,” said Mr McFetridge.

“In addition, a likely inflation-busting rise in the minimum wage coupled with a hefty increase in the Uniform Business Rate, will hit many retailers hard – especially those with large numbers of part-time staff such as supermarkets.”

Mr McFetridge said retailers such as Tesco would continue to be very successful in home markets like Britain and Ireland but that their growing expansion could also give rise to a number of difficulties.

“Size and scale will need to be incredibly well managed and this will be a critical year for Tesco if they are to continue to beat their own targets,” he continued.

“Marks and Spencer and Next will also need to recover costs/profits lost during the pre-Christmas trading period, they may well pass on some of these costs to unsuspecting consumers.”

With growing levels of consumer sophistication and increasing levels of discrimination from a more experimental, educated and well-travelled population the only success stories this year will be reserved for those with the requisite amount of retail clairvoyancy who can spot trends and respond to market trends quickly and effectively, Mr McFetridge concluded.

(MB/SP)