The latest statistics have revealed that Total Income From Farming (TIFF) in the UK is forecast to rise in 2002 by 11%, or by 9% in real terms.

However, with a reduction in the number of farmers, TIFF per full-time person equivalent is forecast to rise in 2002 by 15%, or by 13% in real terms, to £10,700. Although having risen in each of the last two years, TIFF is still 64% below its 1995 peak, when it more than doubled between 1990 and 1995.

While there is an overall increase in income, this masks variation across farming sectors. The value of output of cereals rose as production recovered even though prices were lower and the prices received by farmers for milk were also lower. The output of cattle and sheep recovered following foot-and-mouth disease but the value of output of potatoes declined due to lower prices.

Overall the long-term trend in aggregate agricultural income in the UK has been downwards, although it rose and fell dramatically in the mid-nineties due largely to changes in exchange rates, world commodity prices and the impact of BSE.

Although a forecast of TIFF in Northern Ireland is not yet available, the available information suggests that, in contrast to the increase at UK level, aggregate income in Northern Ireland is likely to be substantially lower in 2002 than in 2001.

Analysts attribute this to a sharp fall in the price of milk and, consequently in the value of milk output. This sector accounts for a much greater proportion of agricultural output in Northern Ireland than in the UK as a whole and it is feared that the adverse weather conditions will also have had an impact on costs, notably with the increased use of concentrate foodstuffs.

A forecast of incomes by type of farm for the year to mid-February 2003 will be available on January 30 2003.

(SP)