29/07/2003

Statistical system could expose a new Shipman

Researchers from Imperial College London have developed a statistical system which could have exposed serial killer Harold Shipman as early as 1997.

The researchers collected data from more than 1,000 GPs (including Shipman) or practices over five health authority areas between 1993 and 1999, linking information from death certificates and patient lists. From this they were able to work out how many patients died per GP or practice.

The research team concluded: "If the cumulative difference between the observed mortality and the reference rates exceeded a pre-defined threshold, this signalled a warning that the mortality rates for the GP or practice in question warranted further investigation."

Although the system was developed as a practical response to monitoring issues raised by the Harold Shipman case, it can also be used to monitor variations in the quality of care between GPs and practices.

Dr Paul Aylin, one of the paper's authors, said: "Following the Shipman affair it became clear that no method existed to monitor mortality rates in general practice.

"One use of this system would be to help stop a repeat of the Shipman affair, but tools such as this could also help in monitoring the performance of GPs and their practices by continuously keeping track of mortality rates."

The work was funded by the Shipman Inquiry.

(GMcG)

Related UK National News Stories
Click here for the latest headlines.

27 January 2005
Latest report pushes 'likely' Shipman victim toll to 250
The sixth report into the murders committed by former GP Harold Shipman has revealed that he murdered at least three patients during his years as a junior doctor, bringing the total toll to a possible 250.
13 January 2004
Serial killer Shipman found dead in his cell
Harold Shipman, Britain's most prolific serial killer, has died in his cell this morning after he apparently hanged himself. Shipman, 57, who was jailed for life in 2000 for the murders of 15 people, was discovered by prison staff at Wakefield Prison at around 6.20am.
25 August 2005
Shipman suicide ‘could not have been prevented’
The suicide of serial killer Harold Shipman “could not have been predicted or prevented”, an official report has stated. However, the report by the Prisons and Probation Ombudsman Stephen Shaw criticised the way prison staff dealt with Shipman in the weeks prior to his death.
11 April 2005
'No indication' of Shipman suicide, widow tells inquiry
The widow of serial killer Harold Shipman has told an inquiry into his death that he gave no indication of an intention to commit suicide. Primrose Shipman told the inquiry, which opened at Leeds Crown Court today, that she asked her husband if he was suicidal during a conversation while he was being held in HMP Manchester in 1999.
25 February 2004
Serial killer GP Harold Shipman is cremated
The serial killer doctor, Harold Shipman, has been cremated following a short ceremony attended by his wife and four children, it has been reported today. To avoid unwanted media attention, the ceremony was held after hours and at an undisclosed location in Yorkshire, according to the Daily Mirror.