12/11/2003

Bank of England predicts 'modest' UK recovery

The Bank of England's latest quarterly report has forecast both growth in the economy and a rise in inflationary pressures within the economy.

However, The Bank of England's Governor Mervyn King has warned that some homeowners may end up in a negative equity situation should UK interest rates continue to increase to hold inflation in check.

Playing down the risks, he said that "heavily indebted households" could be affected by changes in economic circumstances and interest rate changes. He warned people to think carefully about what level of debt they could afford.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee last week increased interest rates for the first time in four years. Some analysts predict that interest rates may have to rise by a full point to at least 4.25% by next year, if inflation is to be kept close to the government's 2.5% target.

However, the quarterly inflation report from the Bank indicated that many of the key indicators showed no sign that personal debt problems had increased significantly, and inflation is expected to remain at or around the 2.5% target figure in the near term.

The report also predicted that the economic growth over the next two years is likely to be "above trend" with GDP rising annually at a rate of around 3% by the middle of next year. Mr King said that the outlook for growth had "improved".

While the report considered the general economic outlook as broadly favourable, concerns were raised that continued high house price inflation could threaten the general economy by exacerbating inflationary pressures.

(SP)

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