19/02/2004

Strong retail sales growth stokes interest rate hike

The strong surge in retail sales revealed in the latest figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has fuelled speculation that another interest rate rise is imminent.

According to the ONS figures retail sales in the UK leapt 0.6% in January, raising sales to 6.4% above that of the previous year. Many analysts were predicting a cooling off in retail sales following a relatively strong consumer activity on the high street at Christmas.

The unexpected jump in consumer spending may well force the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to advance a hike in interest rates to April, before the next major report on inflation is due in May.

The MPC have already noted that there is a surprising "resilience" in consumer sector, as interest rates were raised by one quarter of a point to 4% earlier this month.

The ONS report revealed that total retail sales grew by 1.7% in the three months November 2003 to January 2004 compared with the previous three months.

Growth in sales for non-food stores continued to be significantly higher than that for food stores - sales in the latest three months compared with the previous three months increased by 2.5% for non-food stores and by 0.6% for food retailers.

The total retail sales volume for the three months to January was 4.5% higher than a year ago with the strongest increase being in the clothing and footwear sector at 7.6%.

Household goods stores and other non-food stores also showed strong growth over the year at 7.0% and 7.1% respectively.

(SP)

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