Avian flu outbreak could swamp NHS

Health experts have warned that an outbreak of avian flu could swamp the NHS.

One impact prediction by scientists estimates that an Influenza A pandemic lasting weeks could sweep the UK and result in over 37,000 critical care beds being required for patients. This would quickly overwhelm the available beds in hospitals by a factor of at least two.

The latest situation assessment by the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that the risk of a pandemic is probably greater than 1968 when the last pandemic occurred.

The only criteria not met for a pandemic scenario is that the H5N1 strain of the virus, which is endemic to parts of Asia, cannot be transmitted readily from human to human.

However, health experts remain concerned that the influenza virus, which is notoriously adaptable and already capable of infecting humans, may mutate further and could become a serious threat to humans.

There is still a significant risk that wild birds, which are dying in large numbers due to the highly pathogenic virus, could pose a risk to humans.

Scientists admit that, given the constantly changing nature of these Influenza A viruses, such a scenario is impossible to predict.

WHO experts believe that adaptive mutation into a pandemic transmissible form of the virus will probably be found as small clusters of human cases with evidence of limited transmission, which will "probably give the world some time to take defensive action."

The Government is currently stockpiling antiviral drugs in an effort to counter the threat of a flu pandemic. The UK has procured around 14.6 million doses of Tamiflu, enough to treat around one quarter of the UK population.

The severe form of avian influenza caused by the H5N1 strain has affected poultry flocks and other birds in several Asian countries since 2003.

According to the latest figures available, 115 people are known to have been infected, 59 of whom have subsequently died.

This has heightened concern about the possibility of further spread among humans and even a pandemic.

(SP)