24/04/2009

UK Economy Shrinks At Fastest Rate In 30 Years

The British economy shrank by 1.9% in the first three months this year, according to gross domestic product (GDP) data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The contraction, which is the worst in 30 years, follows a 1.6% slump in the last three months of 2008. The last time a three-month decline was as sharp was in 1979, the year when Margaret Thatcher came into power.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, who gave his Budget speech on Wednesday, is likely to be embarrassed by the figure, as he predicted that the first quarter contracted "by a similar amount" to the fourth quarter of 2008.

The manufacturing sector was also affected, with the biggest quarterly fall in output between January and March recorded, since the start of official records in 1948.

Vicky Redwood, UK economist for Capital Economics, said today's figures "deal an instant blow for the Chancellor's forecast of a 3.5% drop in GDP this year".

She added: "For that to be achieved, GDP would have to be broadly flat from the second quarter onwards, yet the surveys are already pointing to another fall of 1% or so in the second quarter."

Treasury Chief Secretary Yvette Cooper said the worse-than-predicted figures made no change to the Government’s projections for recovery.

She said: "We set out our forecasts on Wednesday and those are the forecasts we believe are right for this year."

The International Monetary fund (IMF) warned two days ago that Britain would remain in a recession for another year, as consumers cut spending.

A 4.1% decline for 2009 was also predicted by the organisation, with a 0.4% contraction in 2010.

(JM/BMcC)

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