Flooding costs set to rise up to '20-fold'

Flooding and coastal erosion damage may rise by between two and 20-fold inside the next 100 years, according to a government report published today.

A group of experts in climate change, engineering and economics involved in the DTI Foresight project on flood and coastal defences concluded that a reduction in green house gas emissions and enhanced long-term flood management would be required to control the risk to the UK from future flooding.

Sir David King, Chief Scientific Adviser to the Government said: "This Foresight report is the most wide-ranging analysis of future flood risk ever made in the UK. Flooding can have a devastating effect on people's homes and businesses.

"There are currently around £200 billion worth of assets and 1.7 million properties in flood risk areas in England and Wales. The scenarios in the Future Flooding report may seem a long way off, but the challenge of increased flood risk needs to be considered now."

The Foresight Future Flooding report looked 30-100 years ahead. It outlines the possible risks for the UK from flooding and coastal erosion, and highlights the decisions that need to be made to protect people, homes, businesses and the environment in the future.

Examining various scenarios the report concluded that the additional cost of flood damage could be reduced:

• by up to 25% if carbon dioxide emissions are reduced;
• if new building in high flood risk areas is carefully managed;
• if an integrated programme of engineering projects and other actions to limit flood damage are carried out.

But the reports authors warned that over the next 100 years, if current levels of expenditure and approaches to flood management remain unchanged river and coastal flood risk could increase between two and 20 times.

The risk of flooding from rainfall could increase between three and six times and that annual economic damage could increase from £1bn to between £1.5bn and £21bn by the 2080s, depending on the scenario.

Maintaining the current level of flood risk could cost between £20bn to £80bn in total over the next 80 years, but a steady increase in investment starting now could make future flood management more affordable - there would need to be an annual increase of between £10m to £30m per year for the next 80 years.

Receiving the report, Environment Minister Elliot Morley said: "Managing future flood risk, including the latest climate change predictions, is a challenge DEFRA is addressing as it works on its new Strategy for Flood & Coastal Protection.

"Foresight's important predictive insights mean that part of DEFRA's work is already done - the report's conclusions will be incorporated into the draft Strategy, to be published for consultation later this year."

The minister said that government spending on flood and coastal defence has risen significantly in the last three years and the UK was "firmly committed to combating climate change".

(SP)