Quarterly sales flat in 'uncertain' consumer outlook

The latest figures for retail sales in the UK show that in the three months to January the seasonally adjusted index for retail sales remained flat and though the overall sales trend is on a par with the previous three months, the outlook remains uncertain.

The Office of National Statistics reported that between December and January the volume of sales rose by 0.9%, resulting from marginal increases across all sectors except in 'other non-food stores' where sales declined slightly.

The volume of sales in predominantly food stores in the latest three months increased by 0.4% compared with the previous three months, while in predominantly non-food stores sales were down 0.6%.

Based on non-seasonally adjusted data, the average weekly value of retail sales in January 2005 was £4.37 billion, which is 2.2% higher than in January 2004 but 28.9% lower than in December 2004.

In November to January the value of sales in current prices was 3.1% higher than in the same period a year earlier.

In November to January the seasonally adjusted volume of sales by those stores designated as selling "predominantly food" and "predominantly non-food" both increased by 4.1% compared with a year earlier.

In November to January the estimated value of sales (not seasonally adjusted) of food, drink and tobacco was 4% up on the previous year; sales of clothing and footwear were 3%; sales of household goods were 2%; and sales of other non-food products were 2% higher.

The ONS said that estimating changes in the month-to-month volume of retail sales is always "subject to additional uncertainties", as over the Christmas and New Year period there are very large seasonal variations in sales. Though the three-month on three-month figures represent a better guide to the underlying trend in growth.

The Bank of England expects consumer spending to grow by around 0.7% per quarter, but has warned that the outlook for consumer spending is "highly uncertain".

(SP/MB)