16/05/2008

Little Hope Of New Interest Rate Fall

The UK should not expect another cut in interest rates for at least two years, the Bank of England indicated yesterday.

It also warned that inflation would rise far above its previous forecasts and persist at levels well above the government’s target until early 2010.

Mervyn King, the Bank Governor, said the consequence of price increases would be "a squeeze on real take-home pay, which will slow consumer spending and output growth, perhaps sharply".

He added that it was "quite possible we may get the odd quarter or two of negative growth", but added that a recession was not the Bank’s central forecast.

Alistair Darling, the Cancellor, said his unfunded £2.7bn tax cut would "support the economy when it needs to be supported".

However, Mr King said the effects of the emergency Budget would be "modest".

Presenting the latest UK quarterly forecasts, the Bank said inflation was likely to rise above 3% over the next few months and remain more than one percentage point above its 2% target.

Being independent, the Bank of England is required to explain to the government every three months how it will bring inflation back under control if it deviates by more than one percentage point from the target.

The Bank's inflation projections do not return to the 2% target until early 2010, suggesting it has no room for rate cuts until then, even though the UK economy will slow sharply.

The Bank's stance on monetary policy appears similar to that of the European Central Bank.

The blame for higher inflation, Mr King said, lay with surging energy and food prices, along with higher import prices resulting from falls in sterling. The Bank expects another 15% in domestic gas and electricity prices in coming months.

Malcolm Barr of JPMorgan said the message in the inflation report was clear: "The Monetary Policy Committee believes it has to tolerate a slowdown in growth which is sharp, takes the economy close to stagnation and continues well into 2009 if it is to control inflation risks."

(BMcC)

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