A decade after the 2016 Brexit vote, a clear majority of Northern Ireland voters agree that the UK's departure from the European Union has been more of a failure than a success for the region, new research from Queen's University Belfast reveals.

The findings are part of the 15th 'Testing the Temperature' report, an ongoing study tracking public sentiment on Brexit and the Protocol/Windsor Framework. Led by Professor David Phinnemore and Professor Katy Hayward, the series previously operated under a four-year project from 2021 to 2024 backed by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). The newest poll was conducted by LucidTalk between 17 and 20 April 2026, gathering data from a weighted sample of 1,050 respondents across Northern Ireland.

According to the data, 72% of voters—including a majority of those who voted to Leave—view Brexit as a failure for Northern Ireland. The electorate remains heavily split over the vote's democratic legitimacy, with 40% believing the referendum was run on a fair process compared to 48% who disagree. Additionally, 66% of respondents think Brexit has increased the likelihood of the UK breaking up. Brexit identities remain deeply rooted, with 52% stating their status as a 'Leaver' or 'Remainer' is still very important to them, a sentiment particularly strong among older demographics and Leave voters.

While the electorate generally accepts the Windsor Framework, public backing is softening alongside a drop in public comprehension. Only 58% of respondents state they have a good understanding of the framework, marking the lowest percentage since the polling series began. Furthermore, just 40% believe that reliable information on the topic is available, the lowest recorded figure since Summer 2021.

Commenting on the results, Professor David Phinnemore stated: "The poll provides further evidence that understanding of the Windsor Framework is declining. In part, this is no doubt due to the complexity of some of its arrangements. Yet the poll findings also show fewer voters believing reliable information is available.

"With the UK and EU negotiating new agreements that are expected to reduce trade frictions arising from the Windsor Framework, it will be important that the new arrangements are clearly and reliably explained. If they are not, then this will only further damage trust levels in the UK Government and the EU." Professor Katy Hayward added: "Ten years after the Brexit referendum, 1 in 2 voters in Northern Ireland still see their Leave/Remain identity as very important - across both camps and the political spectrum. This constitutes an additional layer of division broadly on top of existing ones. The need to manage this with compromise on both sides explains the region's unique post-Brexit arrangements, i.e. the Windsor Framework. It also helps explain why the majority of both Leavers and Remainers here believe - albeit for different reasons - that Brexit has been a failure for Northern Ireland."

The survey detailed several other key insights regarding public opinion on post-Brexit arrangements:

• Framework Approval: The proportion of voters who view the Windsor Framework as a good thing on balance for Northern Ireland has fallen to 46%, the lowest level since June 2021. With 38% disagreeing, the gap between critics and supporters has narrowed.

• Appropriate Management: Only 46% see the framework as an appropriate mechanism for handling Brexit's impact in Northern Ireland, a decline from 61% in Summer 2024 and equal to the previous low in Spring 2021.

• UK Relations: Perceptions of the framework's impact on Northern Ireland's relationship with the rest of the UK remain mostly negative, particularly regarding its position inside the UK internal market, where 44% view it negatively versus 28% positively.

• Economic Outlook: Financial perceptions remain more positive than negative, with 45% viewing the economic impact as positive compared to 37% who see it as negative. While 57% believe the framework presents unique economic advantages, this has dropped from 68% in Summer 2024.

• Political Trust: Trust in leadership to protect regional interests under the framework remains low and uneven. The UK Government is the least trusted entity at 12%. Large majorities distrust a Conservative-led (76%) or Reform-led (70%) UK government to safeguard Northern Ireland's interests in EU-UK relations. However, 20% would trust a Reform-led executive more than a Conservative-led alternative (11%) or the current administration.

• Party and Business Confidence: Trust in political parties hovers around 30%. The SDLP holds the highest trust level at 38%. Within unionism, the TUV is the most trusted party at 30%, though it simultaneously ranks as the most strongly distrusted at 50%. Northern Ireland business representatives remain the most trusted group overall at 49%.

Looking toward the future, the poll indicates a strong preference among voters for closer cooperation with the EU. Further weakening of UK-EU ties is opposed by 59% of respondents, while 57% support the UK rejoining the EU, showing significant divisions along gender lines and previous Leave/Remain votes. Additionally, 73% support Ireland using its EU Council Presidency to enhance EU-UK relations. On non-EU matters, 58% oppose withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights, while 36% support an exit—a figure higher than the 29% recorded in Great Britain by a YouGov poll in October 2025.

For the full report and findings, please visit www.qub.ac.uk/sites/post-brexit-governance-ni/ProjectPublications/OpinionPolling/